Is weather change, global warming, really the issue?

[Mike_E_from_NZ]

My personal opinion is still forming on this global warming thing. I sat and listened to Ken Ring talk the other night (http://www.predictweather.com) and he made for a pretty convincing argument against it. This guy's life is the weather. And he takes a pretty long term view of it as well.

His point is that the weather is infuenced by the moon (and other more minor effects) and it happens in cycles (the longest of which is 186 years, the shortest 355 days). What we are seeing in the weather is nothing that we haven't seen before (well, not we, because none of us are 186 years old, but humankind).

He brought out predictions made, by the same scientists as are making predictions now, merely 20 years ago and they seemed absolutely absurd.

And he trotted out evidence of our current weather patterns in the past.

HOWEVER:

The usual 'proof' of global warming is the extreme weather we are seeing and the damage it is causing. Floods and droughts for example. Ken did not talk of this, as it was not really his area (well, the lack of rain is - but not the effects)

And that CAN be explained by the damage that is being done to the environment - in particular the damage being done to the soil and the flora of the planet. Healthy rain forests moderate the effect of weather.

But I don't see a lot of media attention on the state of our soil.

I can only assume that there is money and power to be had in global warming, but those that stand to gain from that, stand to lose it all if we start to concentrate on our soils.

Now, this post is not to propose that anything we are doing to damage the environment os okay. It is just to suggest that our attention may be being diverted for political ends.

Mike

[ecodharmamark]

g'day mike

yes, there is much in the way of information pertaining to both 'human induced climate change', and the 'natural cyclic weather responses to interplanetary shift, etc.'

i try to keep an open mind concerning these things, but one thing i do try to do is follow the 'precautinary principle'. the one that i particulary like is cited in 'human ecology, human economy':

"if we live as if it matters, and it doesn't matter, then it doesn't matter. If we live as if it doesn't matter, and it matters, then it matters." (diesendorf and hamilton, eds., 1997: p.79)

have a good christmas/new year, mike.

mark.

[Mike_E_from_NZ]

Hi Mark


"if we live as if it matters, and it doesn't matter, then it doesn't matter. If we live as if it doesn't matter, and it matters, then it matters." (diesendorf and hamilton, eds., 1997: p.79)

Yes, kind of like Pascal's wager.

The damage is pretty obvious, but global warming kind of limits what we focus our attention on. Soil and flora health is more encompassing and, I guess, more threatening to the global "economy"

Mike

[ecodharmamark]

true, mike,

unfortunately many people (at least in the western or 'developed' world) measure the 'health' of their society/community by the size of the GDP on a national scale, or the size of the wallet/purse on a local level. of course these are the very people that we need to provide 'precautionary principles' as a means of helping them change their unsustainable practices. we need to try and cover as many 'frames of reference' as possible in order to get the message to the mass of humanity. many will not change until the effects of living unsustainably are 'punching them in the nose'. many are changing as we speak (write). i remain eternally optimistic that we will find a way.

[ho-hum]

I too try to keep an open mind on global warming but recently saw a show that 4 non-related entities in the USA, Germany, Israel and Australia were measuring the amount of sunlight hitting the planet. This apparently came about after 9/11 when all aircraft were grounded a climatologist noticed how blue the skies were - and went looking.

We are also in a phenomenon of global dimming, which is, to some extent, negating global warming, if this is the case then we are being shielded from the full impact of global warming.

http://www.google.com.au/search?sourcei ... al+dimming (http://www.google.com.au/search?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLD,GGLD:2004-04,GGLD:en&q=global+dimming).

We have to slow up consumerism.

Cheers

floot

Apart from all this my only advice is

[bazman]

I have had a bit of a look around a view sites to read up on the outcomes of the ice core tests done in greenland and other spots around the globe, didn't find any really useful outcomes apart from how they did it and infomation which is a little beyond me, but I did come across this page which sort of sits on the fence if not a little on the other side of my thinking, but I thought it was a good read.

http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFoss ... _ages.html (http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html)

"No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits.... Climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world."


Christine Stewart, Minister of the Environment of Canada

[Mike_E_from_NZ]

Hi Bazman

That is quite an interesting site. It states on one of the pages that we are in the middle of an ice age - albeit 18000 years into a 20000 year interglacial vacation.

Mike

[Anissa]

Another theory can be found in a book called "Not by Fire but by Ice" by Robert Felix. It links together, global warming, volcanic activity, magnetic reversals, ice age cycles and mass extinctions. Excellent
http://www.iceagenow.com

[hedwig]

most of the scientists say that global warming is true and we are yet in the process of global warming. We can only change the amount of global warming. In the eternal ice they trilled probes (I hope its understandable) and the scientists found that the amount of CO2 is three times higher than it was before the industrialization. It would be realy strange if this huge change of the atmospehre has no impact on nature. In Europe climate changes yet (extreme summers, warm winters In Australia droght...
Everything is possible without climate change but there are really many things coming together.
More detailes you can raed here:
http://www.munichre.com/
there are informations in english and it's a reassurer - I don't think that they are extremela green, perhaps it convinces you...

[earthbound]

I think I saw the same show Floot, it was quite interesting to learn about the global dimming, and the fact that as we start reducing polution it is only going to increase any warming effects on the earth because of the cleaner atmosphere..

I think that the global warming discussion is going to rage on for a fair while yet as it's so difficult to link effects with causes. However the simple fact is that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. We can not pump billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere and expect that there will be no change of any type to our climate. Whether current climactic changes are related to increased levels of CO2, or related to natural cycles of the earth makes no difference, we must cut down CO2 emmisions.

[ecodharmamark]

g'day again mike, all,

come to think of it, i'm pretty sure i viewed that doco too - the one where the scientist guy noticed how clear the sky was on the morning of nov 12, 2002 - the day the us gov. 'banned' all international/domestic air travel.

anyway, tim flannery's new book, "the weather makers" is pretty good i'm led to believe. haven't read it myself, but i loved "the future eaters".

http://shop.abc.net.au/browse/product.a ... tid=516757 (http://shop.abc.net.au/browse/product.asp?productid=516757)

if anyone's read it, i for one would love a critique.

cheerio, mark.

[earthbound]

I have 'the weather makers' sitting on the table here next to me Mark, bought it today...... :D :D Only problem is, I'm giving it my dad for a chrissie pessent.... :( With a bit of luck I may be able to borrow it off him when he's finished, I'm very keen to read it... Now thats smart christmas shopping.. What do you know I also bought him Guns Germs and steel by Jared Diamond for his birthday on boxing day.... :lol: :lol:

[ho-hum]

Earthbound,

I am with you. I just bought my wife a wonderful 3 tier Plano fishing tackle box for Christmas... :D :D :D She has a day to get over it as I wish to borrow it on Boxing Day...

Merry Christmas

MJ

[earthbound]

I hope you stocked it with some tackle as well Mike..... And let me guess, she'll be getting a beautiful new rod and reel for her birthday.... :D :lol: :D

[SueinWA]

Global warming is one of those things that sticks in the back of my mind. All I can do is all I can do. I can't really change any of the big things...

Then I read two things that kind of took the edge off it:

1. The temperature worldwide has risen... wait for it.... 2° in the last 100 or 150 years. I don't know if they meant F or C, but TWO WHOLE DEGREES! :oops:

2. A high percentage of the CO2 (I think -- the stuff that comes with methane gas) comes from .... cows. :?

So, really, how seriously are we supposed to take this???

Sue

[Richard on Maui]

2 degrees is a lot though Sue. And, there are a lot of cows, thanks to people who love steak etc. So, I would take it all very seriously. Just because it is absurd doesn't mean it isn't real and dangerous. Take George Bush for example...(insert rolling eyes guy)

[SueinWA]

Yes, you do have a point there.

A chicken or the egg question:

Is it only idiots that run for public office, or are some of them normal until they get INTO public office, then become idiots???

Because the people who would be good for the country wouldn't be caught dead in politics!

Sue

[Mike_E_from_NZ]

Sue

Perhaps a solution is that we institute a draft for political office. If you actually WANT to be there, then you are disqualified. One term only, then you have to go back and do what you were doing before.

You'd want to do a good job, because you'd have to face the music in 3 years time. You wouldn't be there long enough to establish dubious 'relationships'. And you might even reduce the size of govt while you were there - since you didn't want to be there in the first place.

Mike

[SueinWA]

At least that sounds like a working idea!

And how about adding a clause about more than one member of a family running for any particular office? I'm sure Daddy Bush instructed Baby Bush on all the ways & means of padding his bank account. I certainly don't think he's bright enough to learn it all himself.

Sue

[ho-hum]

Interestingly, I chat at an american political site and there Global Warming is a political phenomenon caused by scare-mongering liberal types who hate GW Bush. No discussion past this point can be entered into and all evidence provided is dismissed as 'biased crap'.

Thank goodness that doesnt happen here.

However one point that I have seen posted was a study into weather records that have been kept. This showed that many of the sites had gone from being rural locations to the middles of cities now and were affected, and 'warmed' by the surrounding miles of concrete & bitumen.

Something else I would love to see is some sort of study in thermometer calibration over the past 100 years, has this 'improved' and the accurate data we now collect is a bit warmer than the perhaps inaccurate data we collected in the past.

Sue does have a point about methane-producing cows now all over the planet in huge numbers.

The other point I did read somewhere was that Mt Pinatubo in the Philippines pumped as much crap into the atmosphere as the first 50 years of the industrial revolution did.

Not stating a position here just posting to encourage the discussion.

Cheers

Mike

[Mike_E_from_NZ]

Mike

Interesting point about thermometer location. It has happened here as well. City councils want their cities portrayed as warm so that people want to live there. So they lobby the meteorological people to move the thermometers.

It is so silly that, apparently, one city has two thermometers at different locations, and the official temperature is the higher of the two. I have no idea what 'official' means, it might just mean the one given to the tv news team.

That kind of carry on could change weather records by 2 degrees in a day!! Imagine that. What would the scientists blame that one on?

Given this, how much of our other science is just politics in disguise?

Mike

[SueinWA]

"...how much of our other science is just politics in disguise?"

Isn't THAT a scary thought!

And, IMHO, not all that far-fetched. Many other "facts" are twisted to suit the person or organization using them.

REBELLION! That's what we need! :lol: We just need to put our foot down... preferably on some politician's neck...

Sue

[Richard on Maui]

Well, weren't the first 50 years of the industrial revolution just the beginning of the exponential growth curve? I know some things have gotten cleaner, but overall we produce more emmissions... I wonder how we stack up against VOG right now? (insert rolling eyes dude)

Given this, how much of our other science is just politics in disguise?

As with anything, I guess it comes down to agenda. Everything begins with an agenda - and sometimes it is honourable. Often it isn't by the time it enters the media.

What purpose would it serve to (1) identify global warming and (2) continue measuring increases?

Variance and the error of the mean are calculated when deriving all statistical results. A score, whether it be weather measurements or plant growth are standardised in relation to the distribution of scores.

A scientist would not compile a study based on anecdotal measurements reported on the TV, or by anyone outside his/her experiment. They are required to qualify all equipment, conditions, the recording of data and report on any potential variables involved in the results.

Often you do not hear these variables when the results are then splattered across TV screens....The public are often presented with black and white results, which are far from realistic....but usually they serve someone elses agenda.

[Snake]

G'day All,

Compliments of the Season!

Sue, methane is a greenhouse gas in itself. The greenhouse effect is not new but is essential for life on the planet as the surface temperature would apparently be about -17 degrees C without it. That said, the issue is "enhanced Greenhouse Effect" which refers to the changes brought about by the actions of humankind, particularly since the industrial revolution. The accuracy with which these changes can be measured is limited considering the longevity of records held and the quality and consistency of the instruments with which the readings were taken, BUT the trend is certainly upwards. There are many who suggest that what we have measured is merely natural cycles, and I guess the global dimming issue as a recent revelation shows how little we know.

When I did my PDC with Geoff Lawton, he suggested that the ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels for energy had to have some impact upon the world - this is energy that has been stored away for many millions of years and once released, it does not disappear but merely changes form - principally becoming heat and being discharged into the earth's atmosphere. Consequently we are loading up the atmosphere with energy and this point of view explains to some extent why we are seeing greater and greater fluctuations and more extreme events.

For mine, I believe that we should do all we can to minimise our impact upon the earth. It should be pointed out though that some theories suggest that even if we ceased emissions of greenhouse gases today, it would take between 200-500 years for gas levels to stabilise in the atmosphere and therefore the temperature will continue to rise until it does so. There is an awful lot of politicisation of this issue - I saw a website the other day about how the Kyoto protocol was just a farce and wouldn't have any effect anyway! Surely any effort has to be better than the John Howard/George Bush ("I'm making money from the oil industry and I don't want that to stop") approach of ignoring the problem. Perhaps the imminent (if not already here) arrival of the peak in global oil production will change some opinions as the money makers start to look elsewhere for their profits? We can but hope - but we will continue to pay a high price in the meantime.

I'll get off my soapbox now.....

Cheers, and best wishes to all for a healthy and happy New Year.

Mark

[earthbound]

Although it may only be 2 degrees temperature change this can lead to other major knock on effects, like the Siberian peat bogs which are begining to thaw and release huge amounts of CO2 and Methane. If we wait till the balance begins to seriously tip one way it could be impossible to stop the chain reaction of events that may eventuate.

[ecodharmamark]

g'day all,

concerning the discussion re: human-induced climate change, etc.; here's what the 'media' have to say (i listened to this interesting editorial via 'radio vision australia' this morning):

http://www.theage.com.au/news/editorial ... 38803.html (http://www.theage.com.au/news/editorial/australia-must-clean-up-its-environmental-act/2005/12/28/1135732638803.html)

happy new year, one and all :)

[PeterM]

... This showed that many of the sites had gone from being rural locations to the middles of cities now and were affected, and 'warmed' by the surrounding miles of concrete & bitumen.

I experience this first hand since I live in the middle of one of the world's biggest heat islands (http://www.cop.ne.jp/2005/en_hiaetiland.html), Tokyo. Much of the surrounding areas down-wind are heating up too. Tokyo is located in the temperate zone but summer temperatures are now often hotter than many south-east Asian tropical cities. Temperatures here are apparently heating up at four times the pace of the global average (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2217285.stm). Last year we had 40 continuous days of 30+ degree celcius temperatures. That was a killer :shock: !!

Cheers,
Peter